Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate
Ma, Xing1,2; Xu, Jianchu1,3; van Noordwijk, Meine4
2010-05-30
发表期刊HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
ISSN0885-6087
卷号24期号:11页码:1379-1390
摘要Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land-cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall-to-streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010-2099. Four land-cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land-cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land-use plus climate-change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter-annual variability. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
关键词Mountain Watershed Land-cover Change Climate Change Scenarios Swat Model Water Resources
资助信息This study was a part of the Project on 'Too much water, too little water-adaptation strategies to climate-induced water stress and hazards in the Greater Himalayan region' supported by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA) through the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). It is part of the Global Research Priority (GRP6) of the World Agroforestry Centre supported by the European Union (EU). We would like to express our gratitude to the staff of Baoshan Hydrological and Meteorological Bureau for their cooperation and their assistance in collecting hydrological and meteorological data.
学科领域Water Resources
DOI10.1002/hyp.7602
收录类别SCI
语种英语
WOS研究方向Water Resources
WOS类目Water Resources
WOS记录号WOS:000277383700001
引用统计
被引频次:23[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/2329
专题资源植物与生物技术所级重点实验室
作者单位1.CAS, Ctr Mt Ecosyst Studies, Kunming Inst Bot, Kunming 650204, Peoples R China
2.Yunnan Inst Environm Sci, Kunming 650034, Peoples R China
3.China Program, World Agroforestry Ctr ICRAF, Kunming 650204, Peoples R China
4.Jl CIFOR, World Agroforestry Ctr ICRAF SE Asia, Bogor 16001, Indonesia
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Ma, Xing,Xu, Jianchu,van Noordwijk, Meine. Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate[J]. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,2010,24(11):1379-1390.
APA Ma, Xing,Xu, Jianchu,&van Noordwijk, Meine.(2010).Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate.HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,24(11),1379-1390.
MLA Ma, Xing,et al."Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate".HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 24.11(2010):1379-1390.
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