Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.003

	Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change
	Mueller, Daniel 1,2; Sun, Zhanli 1; Vongvisouk, Thoumthone 3,4; Pflugmacher, Dirk 2; Xu, Jianchu5 ; Mertz, Ole 3; Muller,D (reprint author),Leibniz Inst Agr Dev Transit Econ IAMO,Theodor Lieser Str 2,D-06120 Halle,Saale,Germany.; mueller@iamo.de
	2014-09-01
发表期刊	GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	28 期号:5 页码:75-83
摘要	Payment schemes for ecosystem services such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) rely on the prediction of 'business-as-usual' scenarios to ensure that emission reductions from carbon credits are additional. However, land systems often undergo periods of nonlinear and abrupt change that invalidate predictions calibrated on past trends. Rapid land-system change can occur when critical thresholds in broad-scale underlying drivers such as commodity prices and climate conditions are crossed or when sudden events such as political change or natural disasters punctuate long-term equilibria. As a result, land systems can shift to new regimes with markedly different economic and ecological characteristics. Anticipating the timing and nature of regime shifts of land systems is extremely challenging, as we demonstrate through empirical case studies in four countries in Southeast Asia (China, Laos, Vietnam and Indonesia). The results show how sudden events and gradual changes in underlying drivers caused rapid, surprising and widespread land-system changes, including shifts to different regimes in China, Vietnam and Indonesia, whereas land systems in Laos remained stable in the study period but show recent signs of rapid change. The observed regime shifts were difficult to anticipate, which compromises the validity of predictions of future land-system changes and the assessment of their impact on greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological processes, agriculture, biodiversity and livelihoods. This implies that long-term initiatives such as REDD must account for the substantial uncertainties inherent in future predictions of land-system change. Learning from past regime shifts and identifying early warning signs for future regime shifts are important challenges for land-system science. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
关键词	Land Use Deforestation Prediction Redd Sustainability Southeast Asia
学科领域	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography
DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.003
收录类别	SCI ; SSCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000343839100007
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/18504
专题	资源植物与生物技术所级重点实验室
通讯作者	Muller,D (reprint author),Leibniz Inst Agr Dev Transit Econ IAMO,Theodor Lieser Str 2,D-06120 Halle,Saale,Germany.; mueller@iamo.de
作者单位	1.Leibniz Inst Agr Dev Transit Econ IAMO, D-06120 Halle, Saale, Germany 2.Humboldt Univ, Integrated Res Inst Transformat Human Environm Sy, D-10099 Berlin, Germany 3.Univ Copenhagen, Fac Sci, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management, DK-1350 Copenhagen, Denmark 4.Natl Univ Laos, Fac Forestry, Viangchan, Laos 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, World Agroforestry Ctr ICRAF, Kunming 650201, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mueller, Daniel,Sun, Zhanli,Vongvisouk, Thoumthone,et al. Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2014,28(5):75-83.
APA	Mueller, Daniel.,Sun, Zhanli.,Vongvisouk, Thoumthone.,Pflugmacher, Dirk.,Xu, Jianchu.,...&mueller@iamo.de.(2014).Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,28(5),75-83.
MLA	Mueller, Daniel,et al."Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 28.5(2014):75-83.

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