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题名: Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change
作者: Mueller, Daniel1, 2; Sun, Zhanli1; Vongvisouk, Thoumthone3, 4; Pflugmacher, Dirk2; null(许建初)5; Mertz, Ole3
刊名: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
关键词: Land use ; Deforestation ; Prediction ; REDD ; Sustainability ; Southeast Asia
英文摘要: Payment schemes for ecosystem services such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) rely on the prediction of 'business-as-usual' scenarios to ensure that emission reductions from carbon credits are additional. However, land systems often undergo periods of nonlinear and abrupt change that invalidate predictions calibrated on past trends. Rapid land-system change can occur when critical thresholds in broad-scale underlying drivers such as commodity prices and climate conditions are crossed or when sudden events such as political change or natural disasters punctuate long-term equilibria. As a result, land systems can shift to new regimes with markedly different economic and ecological characteristics. Anticipating the timing and nature of regime shifts of land systems is extremely challenging, as we demonstrate through empirical case studies in four countries in Southeast Asia (China, Laos, Vietnam and Indonesia). The results show how sudden events and gradual changes in underlying drivers caused rapid, surprising and widespread land-system changes, including shifts to different regimes in China, Vietnam and Indonesia, whereas land systems in Laos remained stable in the study period but show recent signs of rapid change. The observed regime shifts were difficult to anticipate, which compromises the validity of predictions of future land-system changes and the assessment of their impact on greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological processes, agriculture, biodiversity and livelihoods. This implies that long-term initiatives such as REDD must account for the substantial uncertainties inherent in future predictions of land-system change. Learning from past regime shifts and identifying early warning signs for future regime shifts are important challenges for land-system science. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
出版日期: 2014-09-01
卷号: 28, 期号:5, 页码:75-83
语种: 英语
收录类别: SCI ; SSCI
学科分类: Environmental Sciences;Environmental Studies;Geography
ISSN号: 0959-3780
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内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/18504
Appears in Collections:资源植物与生物技术所级重点实验室_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Leibniz Inst Agr Dev Transit Econ IAMO, D-06120 Halle, Saale, Germany
2.Humboldt Univ, Integrated Res Inst Transformat Human Environm Sy, D-10099 Berlin, Germany
3.Univ Copenhagen, Fac Sci, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management, DK-1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
4.Natl Univ Laos, Fac Forestry, Viangchan, Laos
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, World Agroforestry Ctr ICRAF, Kunming 650201, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Mueller,Daniel;Sun,Zhanli;Vongvisouk,Thoumthone;Pflugmacher,Dirk;Xu,Jianchu;Mertz,Ole.Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change,GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2014,50(5):876-879
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