Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China, India, Nepal
Zomer, Robert J.1,2; Trabucco, Antonio3,4; Metzger, Marc J.5; Wang, Mingcheng1; Oli, Krishna P.6; Xu, Jianchu1,2; Zomer, RJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Key Lab Plant Divers & Biogeog East Asia KLPB, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, Peoples R China.; r.zomer@cgiar.org; antonio.trabucco@cmcc.it; marc.metzger@ed.ac.uk; koli@icimod.org
2014-08-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
卷号125期号:3-4页码:445-460
产权排序第一
摘要Rapidly accelerating climate change in the Himalaya is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, and mountain farming and pastoral systems. A geospatial modeling approach based on a global environmental stratification is used to explore potential impacts of projected climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic strata and ecoregions within the transboundary Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL) of China, India and Nepal. Twenty-eight strata, comprising seven bioclimatic zones, were aggregated to develop an ecoregional classification of 12 ecoregions (generally defined by their potential dominant vegetation type), based upon vegetation and landcover characteristics. Projected climate change impacts were modeled by reconstructing the stratification based upon an ensemble of 19 Earth System Models (CIMP5) across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios (i.e. 63 impact simulations), and identifying the change in spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Large and substantial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the KSL area by the year 2050, within all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Over 76 % of the total area may shift to a different stratum, 55 % to a different bioclimatic zone, and 36.6 % to a different ecoregion. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones (357 m) and ecoregions (371 m), decreases in area of the highest elevation zones and ecoregions, large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones and ecoregions, and the disappearance of several strata representing unique bioclimatic conditions within the KSL, with potentially high levels of biotic perturbance by 2050, and a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies in the region.
关键词Hindu Kush-himalayas Biodiversity Mountain System Water
资助信息National Key Basic Research Program of China [2014CB954100]; IDRC; CGIAR Research Program 7: Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS); German Ministry of the Environment (BMZ)
学科领域Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
DOI10.1007/s10584-014-1176-2
收录类别SCI
语种英语
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号WOS:000339970700012
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被引频次:16[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/18311
专题资源植物与生物技术所级重点实验室
通讯作者Zomer, RJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Key Lab Plant Divers & Biogeog East Asia KLPB, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, Peoples R China.; r.zomer@cgiar.org; antonio.trabucco@cmcc.it; marc.metzger@ed.ac.uk; koli@icimod.org
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Key Lab Plant Divers & Biogeog East Asia KLPB, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, Peoples R China
2.World Agroforestry Ctr ICRAF, Ctr Mt Ecosyst Studies, Kunming 650201, Peoples R China
3.EuroMediterranean Ctr Climate Change, IAFENT Div, Sassari, Italy
4.Univ Sassari, Dept Sci Nat & Environm Resources DIPNET, I-07100 Sassari, Italy
5.Univ Edinburgh, Sch GeoSci, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Midlothian, Scotland
6.Int Ctr Integrated Mt Dev ICIMOD, Kathmandu, Nepal
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Zomer, Robert J.,Trabucco, Antonio,Metzger, Marc J.,et al. Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China, India, Nepal[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2014,125(3-4):445-460.
APA Zomer, Robert J..,Trabucco, Antonio.,Metzger, Marc J..,Wang, Mingcheng.,Oli, Krishna P..,...&koli@icimod.org.(2014).Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China, India, Nepal.CLIMATIC CHANGE,125(3-4),445-460.
MLA Zomer, Robert J.,et al."Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China, India, Nepal".CLIMATIC CHANGE 125.3-4(2014):445-460.
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