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题名: Environmental stratification to model climate change impacts on biodiversity and rubber production in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China
作者: Zomer, Robert J.1, 2; Trabucco, Antonio3, 7; Wang, Mingcheng1, 2; Lang, Rong1, 2; Chen, Huafang1, 2; Metzger, Marc J.4; Smajgl, Alex5; Beckschaefer, Philip6; null(许建初)1, 2
刊名: BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
关键词: Climate change ; Bioclimatic stratification ; Biodiversity conservation ; Himalaya
英文摘要: An analysis and multi-model approach, based on a statistically derived Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS) and using a downscaled ensemble (n = 63) of CIMP5 Earth System Models applied across four representative concentration pathways (RCP), has been used to project the impact of climate change on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecosystems within the biodiverse rich Xishuangbanna Prefecture, Yunnan Province, by the year 2050. Four bioclimatic zones and 9 strata were identified, overlaid with protected areas, and associated with on-going landuse change, i.e. a rapid increase in rubber plantation from 8% to 22% of total area between 2002 and 2010. Significant changes in the areal extent and distribution of all zones and strata are projected, with an averaged mean annual temperature increase ranging from 1.6 degrees C to 2.4 degrees C By 2050, there are significant geographical shifts in all identified strata, with an average upward shift of 309 m of elevation for all strata. On average, more than 75% of Xishuangbanna is predicted to shift to a different zone, with 96% shifting to a different stratum. The area conducive to rubber plantations, currently limited by climatic conditions, expands to nearly 75% of the total area. Climatic change potentially removes the bioclimatic barriers to further expansion of rubber plantations within the area and increases pressure on remaining biodiversity both within and outside of protected areas. The analysis provides the basis for understanding potential impacts of changing bioclimatic conditions on managed and unmanaged ecosystems and landuse change trends, within the context of ongoing rapid change and agricultural expansion in the area. Current efforts to conserve forests, biodiversity and traditional landuse systems require an improved understanding of both the projected climatic changes and the responses of biodiversity and traditional agricultural systems to changing conditions. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
出版日期: 2014-02-01
卷号: 170, 页码:264-273
语种: 英语
收录类别: SCI
学科分类: Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
ISSN号: 0006-3207
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/18062
Appears in Collections:资源植物与生物技术所级重点实验室_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Key Lab Plant Biodivers & Biogeog East Asia KLPB, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, Peoples R China
2.World Agroforestry Ctr, Ctr Mt Ecosyst Studies, Kunming 650201, Peoples R China
3.Euromediterranean Ctr Climate Change, IAFENT Div, Sassari, Italy
4.Univ Edinburgh, Sch GeoSci, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Midlothian, Scotland
5.CSIRO Ecosyst Sci, Townsville, Qld 4814, Australia
6.Univ Gottingen, Chair Forest Inventory & Remote Sensing, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany
7.KULeuven, Div Forest Nat & Landscape, B-3001 Louvain, Belgium

Recommended Citation:
Zomer,RobertJ.;Trabucco,Antonio;Wang,Mingcheng;Lang,Rong;Chen,Huafang;Metzger,MarcJ.;Smajgl,Alex;Beckschaefer,Philip;Xu,Jianchu.Environmental stratification to model climate change impacts on biodiversity and rubber production in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China,BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION,2014,170():264-273
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