Environmental stratification to model climate change impacts on biodiversity and rubber production in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China
Zomer, Robert J.1,2; Trabucco, Antonio3,7; Wang, Mingcheng1,2; Lang, Rong1,2; Chen, Huafang1,2; Metzger, Marc J.4; Smajgl, Alex5; Beckschaefer, Philip6; Xu, Jianchu1,2
2014-02-01
发表期刊BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
ISSN0006-3207
卷号170页码:264-273
摘要An analysis and multi-model approach, based on a statistically derived Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS) and using a downscaled ensemble (n = 63) of CIMP5 Earth System Models applied across four representative concentration pathways (RCP), has been used to project the impact of climate change on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecosystems within the biodiverse rich Xishuangbanna Prefecture, Yunnan Province, by the year 2050. Four bioclimatic zones and 9 strata were identified, overlaid with protected areas, and associated with on-going landuse change, i.e. a rapid increase in rubber plantation from 8% to 22% of total area between 2002 and 2010. Significant changes in the areal extent and distribution of all zones and strata are projected, with an averaged mean annual temperature increase ranging from 1.6 degrees C to 2.4 degrees C By 2050, there are significant geographical shifts in all identified strata, with an average upward shift of 309 m of elevation for all strata. On average, more than 75% of Xishuangbanna is predicted to shift to a different zone, with 96% shifting to a different stratum. The area conducive to rubber plantations, currently limited by climatic conditions, expands to nearly 75% of the total area. Climatic change potentially removes the bioclimatic barriers to further expansion of rubber plantations within the area and increases pressure on remaining biodiversity both within and outside of protected areas. The analysis provides the basis for understanding potential impacts of changing bioclimatic conditions on managed and unmanaged ecosystems and landuse change trends, within the context of ongoing rapid change and agricultural expansion in the area. Current efforts to conserve forests, biodiversity and traditional landuse systems require an improved understanding of both the projected climatic changes and the responses of biodiversity and traditional agricultural systems to changing conditions. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
关键词Climate Change Bioclimatic Stratification Biodiversity Conservation Himalaya
资助信息International Development Research Centre (IDRC) - Canada through the "Building Effective Water Governance in the Asian Highlands Project [107085-002]; CSIRO Exploring Mekong Region Futures; Project"Making the Mekong Connected" - MMC [08.7860.3-001.00]; German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ); CGIAR Research Program 6 on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry; German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi)
学科领域Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
DOI10.1016/j.biocon.2013.11.028
收录类别SCI
语种英语
WOS研究方向Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号WOS:000333774500030
引用统计
被引频次:36[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/18062
专题资源植物与生物技术所级重点实验室
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Key Lab Plant Biodivers & Biogeog East Asia KLPB, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, Peoples R China
2.World Agroforestry Ctr, Ctr Mt Ecosyst Studies, Kunming 650201, Peoples R China
3.Euromediterranean Ctr Climate Change, IAFENT Div, Sassari, Italy
4.Univ Edinburgh, Sch GeoSci, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Midlothian, Scotland
5.CSIRO Ecosyst Sci, Townsville, Qld 4814, Australia
6.Univ Gottingen, Chair Forest Inventory & Remote Sensing, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany
7.KULeuven, Div Forest Nat & Landscape, B-3001 Louvain, Belgium
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Zomer, Robert J.,Trabucco, Antonio,Wang, Mingcheng,et al. Environmental stratification to model climate change impacts on biodiversity and rubber production in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China[J]. BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION,2014,170:264-273.
APA Zomer, Robert J..,Trabucco, Antonio.,Wang, Mingcheng.,Lang, Rong.,Chen, Huafang.,...&Xu, Jianchu.(2014).Environmental stratification to model climate change impacts on biodiversity and rubber production in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China.BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION,170,264-273.
MLA Zomer, Robert J.,et al."Environmental stratification to model climate change impacts on biodiversity and rubber production in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China".BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION 170(2014):264-273.
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