Crop-climate model in support of adjusting local ecological calendar in the Taxkorgan, eastern Pamir Plateau

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03204-y

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	Crop-climate model in support of adjusting local ecological calendar in the Taxkorgan, eastern Pamir Plateau
	Yang,Huizhao; Ranjitkar,Sailesh ; Xu,Wenxuan ; Han,Lei ; Yang,Jianbo ; Wu,Liqing ; Xu,Jianchu
	2021
发表期刊	CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN	0165-0009
卷号	167 期号:3-4 页码:56
摘要	Climate variability and changes threaten agriculture. In response, farmers have been forced to adjust farming practices according to locally available options. Ethnoecological knowledge of surrounding environmental events inform such adjustments. This study aims to explore observed changes in the crop calendar and changes in crop yield as response to climatic variability to support adjusting the local crop calendar. Interviews with local leaders and group discussions with farmers were organized. Climatic indices such as growing degree days (GDD) and crop evapotranspiration (ETc) were calculated and regressed with crop production data (1988-2017) from Taxkorgan County of Xinjiang, China, using the partial least square regression (PLS) technique. Survey data revealed that the sowing dates of important crops began earlier than previous decades. Spatial data showed that the growing season advanced 3.2 days per decade. PLS results suggest that GDD and ETc significantly affect crop yield. GDD during the growth period had a significant positive impact, indicating that recent warming is beneficial for crop yields in these regions. ETc during the growth period mostly had a negative impact, suggesting the need for ample water to improve crop yields in the context of further warming. The current shift in sowing is corroborated by early heat accumulation, and crop calendar adjustments can reasonably increase yields. Our results are applicable to agricultural decisions at the farm level following site-specific fieldwork. Optimal planting dates can be determined by combining results from our study and other suitable farming practices to strengthen the resilience of local ecological calendars to climate change.
关键词	Climate change Local calendar Crop-climate model GDD Evapotranspiration Calendar adjustment FARMERS PERCEPTIONS GRAIN-YIELD VARIABILITY MAIZE CHINA WHEAT ADAPTATION IMPACTS UNCERTAINTIES PRODUCTIVITY
DOI	10.1007/s10584-021-03204-y
WOS记录号	WOS:000690946400001
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/73181
专题	中国科学院昆明植物研究所
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Key Lab Plant Divers & Biogeog East Asia, 132 Lanhei Rd, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Kunming Inst Bot, Honghe Ctr Mt Futures, Honghe Cty 654400, Yunnan, Peoples R China 4.N Gene Solut Nat Innova, GPO 44614, Kathmandu 23, Nepal 5.Midwestern Univ, Fac Humanities & Social Sci, Lalitpur, Nepal 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China 7.World Agroforestry ICRAF, East & Cent Asia Reg Off, 132 Lanhei Rd, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang,Huizhao,Ranjitkar,Sailesh,Xu,Wenxuan,et al. Crop-climate model in support of adjusting local ecological calendar in the Taxkorgan, eastern Pamir Plateau[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2021,167(3-4):56.
APA	Yang,Huizhao.,Ranjitkar,Sailesh.,Xu,Wenxuan.,Han,Lei.,Yang,Jianbo.,...&Xu,Jianchu.(2021).Crop-climate model in support of adjusting local ecological calendar in the Taxkorgan, eastern Pamir Plateau.CLIMATIC CHANGE,167(3-4),56.
MLA	Yang,Huizhao,et al."Crop-climate model in support of adjusting local ecological calendar in the Taxkorgan, eastern Pamir Plateau".CLIMATIC CHANGE 167.3-4(2021):56.

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