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Distribution margins as natural laboratories to infer species' flowering responses to climate warming and implications for frost risk
Guo, Liang1; Wang, Jinghong2; Li, Mingjun3; Liu, Lu2; Xu, Jianchu4,5; Cheng, Jimin1; Gang, Chengcheng1; Yu, Qiang1,6; Chen, Ji7; Peng, Changhui1,8; Luedeling, Eike9
Corresponding AuthorPeng, Changhui(changhui_peng@163.com)
2019-04-15
Source PublicationAGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
ISSN0168-1923
Volume268Pages:299-307
AbstractThe timing of flowering phenology in most temperate trees results from the interplay of winter chilling and spring heat. As global warming progresses, reduced chilling may gain increasing importance in regulating flowering dates, and eventually offset flowering advances in response to warmer springs. Later onset of flowering events may arise, with negative effects on plant fitness. However, delayed flowering in trees may also reduce the risk from late frosts. Different temperature conditions at both margins of the apple growing areas of Shaanxi in China provide a natural laboratory to examine the responses of trees' flowering phenology and late frost risk to climate warming. We identified the chilling and heat accumulation periods for apples by Partial Least Squares regression of first flowering dates against daily chilling and heat accumulation rates during 2001-2016. We then analyzed the impacts of temperatures during these periods on flowering timing, and evaluated the frost risk for each site. Results indicated increasing importance of chilling temperatures from north to south, with greatest effects determined for the warmest site, where delayed blossom has been observed during the past 16 years. Since late frosts mostly occurred before tree flowering, only minor frost damage was detected for our study areas, with future delays in flowering likely to reduce the frost risk even further. The redistribution of apple trees to nearby locations with cold winters, either northward or uphill, could be a promising strategy to reduce the risk of insufficient chilling and ensure that production remains viable in a warming future.
KeywordApple flowering phenology Chilling period Climate warming Distribution margin Late frost Partial least squares regression
DOI10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.01.038
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS Research AreaAgriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectAgronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000460844700030
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/65003
Collection资源植物与生物技术所级重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorPeng, Changhui
Affiliation1.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Fanning Loess P, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
2.Shaanxi Meteorol Serv Observ Econ Crops, Xian 710015, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
3.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Hort, Shaanxi Key Lab Apple, State Key Lab Crop Stress Biol Arid Areas, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Ctr Mt Ecosyst Studies, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, Peoples R China
5.World Agroforestry Ctr, Nairobi 00100, Kenya
6.Univ Technol Sydney, Sch Life Sci, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia
7.Aarhus Univ, Dept Agroecol, Ctr Circular Bioecon, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark
8.Univ Quebec Montreal, Inst Environm Sci, Dept Biol Sci, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada
9.Univ Bonn, INRES Hort Sci, D-53121 Bonn, Germany
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Guo, Liang,Wang, Jinghong,Li, Mingjun,et al. Distribution margins as natural laboratories to infer species' flowering responses to climate warming and implications for frost risk[J]. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,2019,268:299-307.
APA Guo, Liang.,Wang, Jinghong.,Li, Mingjun.,Liu, Lu.,Xu, Jianchu.,...&Luedeling, Eike.(2019).Distribution margins as natural laboratories to infer species' flowering responses to climate warming and implications for frost risk.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,268,299-307.
MLA Guo, Liang,et al."Distribution margins as natural laboratories to infer species' flowering responses to climate warming and implications for frost risk".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 268(2019):299-307.
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