Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China
Tang,Cindy Q.; Dong,Yi-Fei; Herrando-Moraira,Sonia; Matsui,Tetsuya; Ohashi,Haruka; He,Long-Yuan; Nakao,Katsuhiro; Tanaka,Nobuyuki; Tomita,Mizuki; Li,Xiao-Shuang; Yan,Hai-Zhong; Peng,Ming-Chun; Hu,Jun; Yang,Ruo-Han; Li,Wang-Jun; Yan,Kai; Hou,Xiuli; Zhang,Zhi-Ying; Lopez-Pujol,Jordi
2017
Source PublicationSCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN2045-2322
Volume7Pages:43822
AbstractThis study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5-1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata.
KeywordLast Glacial Maximum Western North-america Quaternary Climate Extinction Risk Change Threats Europe Phylogeography Populations Responses Habitat
Subject AreaMultidisciplinary Sciences
DOI10.1038/srep43822
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Citation statistics
Cited Times:21[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/54957
Collection植物化学与西部植物资源持续利用国家重点实验室
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Tang,Cindy Q.,Dong,Yi-Fei,Herrando-Moraira,Sonia,et al. Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2017,7:43822.
APA Tang,Cindy Q..,Dong,Yi-Fei.,Herrando-Moraira,Sonia.,Matsui,Tetsuya.,Ohashi,Haruka.,...&Lopez-Pujol,Jordi.(2017).Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,7,43822.
MLA Tang,Cindy Q.,et al."Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 7(2017):43822.
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