Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal

doi:10.1007/s11629-015-3822-1

	Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal
	Rana, Santosh Kumar 1,2,3; Rana, Hum Kala 3; Ghimire, Suresh Kumar 3; Shrestha, Krishna Kumar 3; Ranjitkar, Sailesh 1,4
	2017-03-01
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
卷号	14 期号:3 页码:558-570
摘要	Predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. Contributing to the management program, this study aimed to predict the distribution of two threatened medicinal plants, Fritillaria cirrhosa and Lilium nepalense. The location of focal species gathered from herbarium specimen housed in different herbaria and online databases were geo-referenced and checked for spatial autocorrelation. The predictive environmental variables were selected, and MaxEnt software was used to model the current and future distributions of focal species. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectories of the BCC-CSM1.1 model were used as the future (2050) projection layer. The MaxEnt modelling delineated the potential distribution of F. cirrhosa and L. nepalense. The current suitability is projected towards Central and Eastern Hilly/Mountainous regions. Both species gain maximum suitability in RCP 4.5 which decline towards other trajectories for L. nepalense. Overall, both the focal species shift towards the north-west, losing their potential habitat in hilly and lower mountainous regions by 2050 across all trajectories. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on two threatened and valuable species. The results can be further useful to initiate farming of these medicinally and economically important species based on climatically suitable zone and for designing a germplasm conservation strategy.
关键词	Commercial Exploitation Conservation Lily Fritillaria Cirrhosa Lilium Nepalense Maxent Modelling Species Distribution
DOI	10.1007/s11629-015-3822-1
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000396056200012
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/50987
专题	中国科学院东亚植物多样性与生物地理学重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Key Lab Plant Divers & Biogeog East Asia, Kunming 650201, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Tribhuvan Univ, Cent Dept Bot, Kathmandu, Nepal 4.World Agroforestry Ctr East & Cent Asia, 132 Lanhei Rd, Heilongtan 650201, Kunming, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rana, Santosh Kumar,Rana, Hum Kala,Ghimire, Suresh Kumar,et al. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2017,14(3):558-570.
APA	Rana, Santosh Kumar,Rana, Hum Kala,Ghimire, Suresh Kumar,Shrestha, Krishna Kumar,&Ranjitkar, Sailesh.(2017).Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,14(3),558-570.
MLA	Rana, Santosh Kumar,et al."Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 14.3(2017):558-570.

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