Projected impact of climate change on the effectiveness of the existing protected area network for biodiversity conservation within Yunnan Province, China

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2015.01.031

	Projected impact of climate change on the effectiveness of the existing protected area network for biodiversity conservation within Yunnan Province, China
	Zomer,Robert J.; Xu,Jianchu; Wang,Mingcheng; Trabucco,Antonio; Li,Zhuoqing; Zomer,RJ (reprint author),Chinese Acad Sci,Kunming Inst Bot,Key Lab Plant Div & Biogeog East Asia KLPB,Kunming 650201,Yunnan,Peoples R China.; r.zomer@cgiar.org
	2015
发表期刊	BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
卷号	184 页码:335-345
摘要	Climate change is projected to impact on biodiversity conservation and the effectiveness of the existing protected area network in biologically rich Yunnan Province of southwestern China. A statistically derived bioclimatic stratification is used to analyze projected bioclimatic conditions across Yunnan by the year 2050. The multi-model approach is based on an ensemble of CIMP5 Earth System Models, down-scaled to a set of 1 km(2) resolution climate projections (n = 63), covering four representative concentration pathways (RCP). Nine bioclimatic zones, composed of 33 strata, are currently found within Yunnan. By 2050, the mean elevation of these zones is projected to shift upwards by an average of 269 m, with large increases in area of the warmer zones, and decreases in the colder, higher elevation zones. Temperate and alpine areas of high biodiversity value are at risk. Displacement in the geographic distribution of bioclimatic conditions is likely to have substantial impact across all bioclimatic zones, vegetation types, and habitats currently found in Yunnan. On average, across all RCPs, 45% of the total combined area of the protected area network will shift to a completely different zone, with 83% shifting to a different strata. The great majority of protected area will experience substantially changed, spatially shifted, and novel bioclimatic conditions by 2050. The spatial displacement and upwards shifting of bioclimatic conditions indicates a prolonged period of significant ecological perturbation, which will have a major impact upon the conservation effectiveness of the established protected area network, and other conservation efforts across Yunnan. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
关键词	Himalaya Climate Change Environmental Stratification Biodiversity Conservation Protected Area Network
学科领域	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
DOI	10.1016/j.biocon.2015.01.031
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000353007200037
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/20661
专题	中国科学院东亚植物多样性与生物地理学重点实验室
通讯作者	Zomer,RJ (reprint author),Chinese Acad Sci,Kunming Inst Bot,Key Lab Plant Div & Biogeog East Asia KLPB,Kunming 650201,Yunnan,Peoples R China.; r.zomer@cgiar.org
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zomer,Robert J.,Xu,Jianchu,Wang,Mingcheng,et al. Projected impact of climate change on the effectiveness of the existing protected area network for biodiversity conservation within Yunnan Province, China[J]. BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION,2015,184:335-345.
APA	Zomer,Robert J..,Xu,Jianchu.,Wang,Mingcheng.,Trabucco,Antonio.,Li,Zhuoqing.,...&r.zomer@cgiar.org.(2015).Projected impact of climate change on the effectiveness of the existing protected area network for biodiversity conservation within Yunnan Province, China.BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION,184,335-345.
MLA	Zomer,Robert J.,et al."Projected impact of climate change on the effectiveness of the existing protected area network for biodiversity conservation within Yunnan Province, China".BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION 184(2015):335-345.

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