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题名: Projected impact of climate change on the effectiveness of the existing protected area network for biodiversity conservation within Yunnan Province, China
作者: Zomer,Robert J. ; null(许建初) ; Wang,Mingcheng ; Trabucco,Antonio ; Li,Zhuoqing
刊名: BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
关键词: Himalaya ; Climate change ; Environmental stratification ; Biodiversity conservation ; Protected area network
英文摘要: Climate change is projected to impact on biodiversity conservation and the effectiveness of the existing protected area network in biologically rich Yunnan Province of southwestern China. A statistically derived bioclimatic stratification is used to analyze projected bioclimatic conditions across Yunnan by the year 2050. The multi-model approach is based on an ensemble of CIMP5 Earth System Models, down-scaled to a set of 1 km(2) resolution climate projections (n = 63), covering four representative concentration pathways (RCP). Nine bioclimatic zones, composed of 33 strata, are currently found within Yunnan. By 2050, the mean elevation of these zones is projected to shift upwards by an average of 269 m, with large increases in area of the warmer zones, and decreases in the colder, higher elevation zones. Temperate and alpine areas of high biodiversity value are at risk. Displacement in the geographic distribution of bioclimatic conditions is likely to have substantial impact across all bioclimatic zones, vegetation types, and habitats currently found in Yunnan. On average, across all RCPs, 45% of the total combined area of the protected area network will shift to a completely different zone, with 83% shifting to a different strata. The great majority of protected area will experience substantially changed, spatially shifted, and novel bioclimatic conditions by 2050. The spatial displacement and upwards shifting of bioclimatic conditions indicates a prolonged period of significant ecological perturbation, which will have a major impact upon the conservation effectiveness of the established protected area network, and other conservation efforts across Yunnan. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
出版日期: 2015
卷号: 184, 页码:335-345
语种: 英语
收录类别: SCI
学科分类: Biodiversity Conservation; Ecology; Environmental Sciences
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内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/20661
Appears in Collections:中国科学院东亚植物多样性与生物地理学重点实验室_期刊论文

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