Predicting Habitat Suitability and Adaptation Strategies of an Endangered Endemic Species, Camellia luteoflora Li ex Chang (Ericales: Theaceae) under Future Climate Change

doi:10.3390/f14112177

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	Predicting Habitat Suitability and Adaptation Strategies of an Endangered Endemic Species, Camellia luteoflora Li ex Chang (Ericales: Theaceae) under Future Climate Change
	Rong,Shutian; Luo,Pengrui; Yi,Hang; Yang,Xi; Zhang,Linhan; Zeng,Dan; Wang,Li
	2023
发表期刊	FORESTS
ISSN	1999-4907
卷号	14 期号:11 页码:2177
摘要	Camellia luteoflora Li ex Chang is an endangered plant endemic to the East Asian flora with high ornamental value as well as phylogenetic and floristic research value. Predicting the impact of climate change on its distribution and suitable habitat is crucial until scientific conservation measures are implemented. Based on seven environmental variables and 17 occurrence records, this study optimized the MaxEnt model using the kuenm data package to obtain the optimal parameter combinations (RM = 1.3, FC = LPT) and predicted the potential distribution pattern of C. luteoflora in various future periods. The results revealed that the mean diurnal range, temperature annual range, and precipitation of the wettest month were the influential factors determining the distribution pattern of C. luteoflora, contributing 60.2%, 14.4%, and 12.3% of the variability in the data, respectively. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitats for C. luteoflora was only about 21.9 x 10(4) km(2). Overall, the suitable area around the C. luteoflora distribution points will shrink in a circular pattern in response to future global warming, but some potentially suitable distribution areas will expand and migrate to higher latitudes and the Hengduan Mountains region, representing a survival strategy for coping with climate change. It is hypothesized that the future climate refugia will be the highly suitable area and the Hengduan Mountains region. Furthermore, a retrospective validation method was employed to assess the reliability of the predictions and estimate the model's predictive performance in the future. This study proposes a survival strategy and adaptation measures for C. luteoflora in response to climate change, and the proposed measures can be generalized for application in conservation planning and restoration processes. We also recommend that future studies incorporate factors such as the anthropogenic disturbances and associated socio-economic activities related to C. luteoflora into the model and to further predict the distribution pattern for C. luteoflora in response to historical climatic changes, tracing the evolutionary history of its population.
关键词	Camellia luteoflora climate change MaxEnt model model optimization potential distribution adaptation strategy DISTRIBUTION MODELS CHINA LANDSCAPE REFUGIA
DOI	10.3390/f14112177
WOS记录号	WOS:001109392200001
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/75004
专题	中国科学院昆明植物研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rong,Shutian,Luo,Pengrui,Yi,Hang,et al. Predicting Habitat Suitability and Adaptation Strategies of an Endangered Endemic Species, Camellia luteoflora Li ex Chang (Ericales: Theaceae) under Future Climate Change[J]. FORESTS,2023,14(11):2177.
APA	Rong,Shutian.,Luo,Pengrui.,Yi,Hang.,Yang,Xi.,Zhang,Linhan.,...&Wang,Li.(2023).Predicting Habitat Suitability and Adaptation Strategies of an Endangered Endemic Species, Camellia luteoflora Li ex Chang (Ericales: Theaceae) under Future Climate Change.FORESTS,14(11),2177.
MLA	Rong,Shutian,et al."Predicting Habitat Suitability and Adaptation Strategies of an Endangered Endemic Species, Camellia luteoflora Li ex Chang (Ericales: Theaceae) under Future Climate Change".FORESTS 14.11(2023):2177.

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