Estimating climate-induced 'Nowhere to go' range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107127

KIB OpenIR

	Estimating climate-induced 'Nowhere to go' range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models
	Rana,Santosh Kumar ; Rana,Hum Kala ; Luo,Dong; Sun,Hang
	2021
发表期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
ISSN	1470-160X
卷号	121 页码:107127
摘要	Global climate change threatens the range and resilience of species in the major biodiversity, particularly those in mountain regions. As the climatic conditions at high altitudes becomes suitable for colonization, many alpine plants experiences novel competitive pressures along as well as range-shift limitations along alpine peaks. To estimate climate-induced 'Nowhere to go' scenarios, we modelled habitat suitability for the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. and its subgenera using a multi-model median (MMM) ensemble species distribution modelling (eSDM). This model incorporated 13 climatic and other 15 environmental variables with n = 542 spatially rarefied occurrence records of the Incarvillea species. Meanwhile, contributions of environmental factors to ecological divergence were statistically verified using principal component analysis (PCA) and discriminant function analysis (DFA). Finally, the geographic range was projected under n = 4 different climatic scenarios and analysed for plausible range shifts. The niche divergence test suggested larger ecological differentiation within the genus and subgenera by climatic rather than environmental variables. In response to climatic factors, the consensus projection resulted in a wide range of suitability for Incarvillea across the three foremost Biodiversity hotspots of Asia. The spatio-temporal projection of the Incarvillea species in the Hengduan Mountains expand their range north-westward in future without diminishing their range size under climate warming, but not promisingly occupied niche range as anticipated by the Nowhere to go hypothesis. Therefore, a better understanding of the potential range of the genus Incarvillea and its subgenera envisioned through solely climate-induced variables might provide better insights to biogeographers in understanding geographic range amalgamating climate change adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the biodiversity hotspots.
关键词	Biomod2 Climate change Ensemble species distribution modelling Incarvillea Nowhere to go Range shifts HENGDUAN MOUNTAINS CHANGE IMPACTS ELEVATION PLANTS PHYLOGEOGRAPHY PERFORMANCE VALIDATION MAXIMUM BIAS
DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107127
WOS记录号	WOS:000604891100002
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/73434
专题	中国科学院昆明植物研究所
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Key Lab Plant Divers & Biogeog East Asia, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rana,Santosh Kumar,Rana,Hum Kala,Luo,Dong,et al. Estimating climate-induced 'Nowhere to go' range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models[J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,2021,121:107127.
APA	Rana,Santosh Kumar,Rana,Hum Kala,Luo,Dong,&Sun,Hang.(2021).Estimating climate-induced 'Nowhere to go' range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,121,107127.
MLA	Rana,Santosh Kumar,et al."Estimating climate-induced 'Nowhere to go' range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 121(2021):107127.