Knowledge Management System of Kunming Institute of Botany,CAS
| Estimating the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Garuga forrestii, an Endemic Species in China | |
Tiamiyu,Bashir B.; Ngarega,Boniface K.; Zhang,Xu; Zhang,Huajie; Kuang,Tianhui; Huang,Gui-Yun; Deng,Tao ; Wang,Hengchang
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| 2021 | |
| 发表期刊 | FORESTS
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| ISSN | 1999-4907 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:12页码:1708 |
| 摘要 | Understanding how species have adapted and responded to past climate provides insights into the present geographical distribution and may improve predictions of how biotic communities will respond to future climate change. Therefore, estimating the distribution and potentially suitable habitats is essential for conserving sensitive species such as Garuga forrestii W.W.Sm., a tree species endemic to China. The potential climatic zones of G. forrestii were modelled in MaxEnt software using 24 geographic points and nine environmental variables for the current and future (2050 and 2070) conditions under two climate representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The resulting ecological niche models (ENMs) demonstrated adequate internal assessment metrics, with all AUC and TSS values being >0.79 and a pROC of >1.534. Our results also showed that the distribution of G. forrestii was primarily influenced by temperature seasonality (% contribution = 12%), elevation (% contribution = 27.5%), and precipitation of the wettest month (% contribution = 35.6%). Our findings also indicated that G. forrestii might occupy an area of 309,516.2 km(2) in southwestern China. We note that the species has a potential distribution in three provinces, including Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guangxi. A significant decline in species range is observed under the future worst case of high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), with about 19.5% and 20% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. Similarly, higher elevations shift northward to southern parts of Sichuan province in 2050 and 2070. Thus, this study helps highlight the vulnerability of the species, response to future climate and provides an insight to assess habitat suitability for conservation management. |
| 关键词 | biodiversity conservation climate change MaxEnt habitat suitability RCP scenarios ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELS SAMPLING BIAS RANGE BIODIVERSITY COMPLEXITY SELECTION ACCURACY MAXENT |
| DOI | 10.3390/f12121708 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000737574700001 |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/73254 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院昆明植物研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Key Lab Plant Germplasm Enhancement & Special, Wuhan Bot Garden, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Conservat Biol, Core Bot Gardens, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Tiamiyu, Bashir B.] Univ Ilorin, Dept Plant Biol, Ilorin 1515, Nigeria 5.Ngarega, Boniface K.] Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Integrat Conservat, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Menglun 666303, Peoples R China 6.Ngarega, Boniface K.] Chinese Acad Sci, Sino African Joint Res Ctr, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Key Lab Plant Divers & Biogeog East Asia, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, Peoples R China 8.Three Gorges Corp, Rare Plants Res Inst Yangtze River, Yichang 443133, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tiamiyu,Bashir B.,Ngarega,Boniface K.,Zhang,Xu,et al. Estimating the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Garuga forrestii, an Endemic Species in China[J]. FORESTS,2021,12(12):1708. |
| APA | Tiamiyu,Bashir B..,Ngarega,Boniface K..,Zhang,Xu.,Zhang,Huajie.,Kuang,Tianhui.,...&Wang,Hengchang.(2021).Estimating the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Garuga forrestii, an Endemic Species in China.FORESTS,12(12),1708. |
| MLA | Tiamiyu,Bashir B.,et al."Estimating the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Garuga forrestii, an Endemic Species in China".FORESTS 12.12(2021):1708. |
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