Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0163916

	Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal
	Ranjitkar, Sailesh 1,2; Sujakhu, Nani M.1; Merz, Juerg 3; Kindt, Roeland 4; Xu, Jianchu1,2 ; Matin, Mir A.5; Ali, Mostafa 5; Zomer, Robert J.1,2
	2016-09-30
发表期刊	PLOS ONE
卷号	11 期号:9 页码:e0163916
摘要	The Government of Nepal has identified opportunities in agricultural commercialization, responding to a growing internal demand and expansion of export markets to reduce the immense trade deficit. Several cash crops, including coffee and bananas, have been identified in the recently approved Agriculture Development Strategy. Both of these crops have encouraged smallholder farmers to convert their subsistence farming practices to more commercial cultivation. Identification of suitable agro-ecological zones and understanding climate-related issues are important for improved production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Here, the suitability of coffee and banana crops is analyzed for different agro-ecological zones represented by Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS). Future shifts in these suitability zones are also predicted. Plantation sites in Nepal were geo-referenced and used as input in species distribution modelling. The multi-model ensemble model suggests that climate change will reduce the suitable growing area for coffee by about 72% across the selected emission scenarios from now to 2050. Impacts are low for banana growing, with a reduction in suitability by about 16% by 2050. Bananas show a lot of potential for playing an important role in Nepal as a sustainable crop in the context of climate change, as this study indicates that the amount of area suited to banana growing will grow by 40% by 2050. Based on our analysis we recommend possible new locations for coffee plantations and one method for mitigating climate change-related problems on existing plantations. These findings are expected to support planning and policy dialogue for mitigation and support better informed and scientifically based decision-making relating to these two crops.
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0163916
收录类别	SCI ; SSCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000384329200034
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/33612
专题	中国科学院东亚植物多样性与生物地理学重点实验室
作者单位	1.Kunming Inst Bot, Key Lab Plant Divers & Biogeog East Asia, Kunming 650201, Peoples R China 2.World Agroforestry Ctr East & Cent Asia, Kunming 650201, Peoples R China 3.HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperat, Lalitpur 44700, Nepal 4.World Agroforestry Ctr, United Nations Ave,Gigiri 30677, Nairobi 00100, Kenya 5.Int Ctr Integrated Mt Dev, Lalitpur 44700, Nepal
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ranjitkar, Sailesh,Sujakhu, Nani M.,Merz, Juerg,et al. Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal[J]. PLOS ONE,2016,11(9):e0163916.
APA	Ranjitkar, Sailesh.,Sujakhu, Nani M..,Merz, Juerg.,Kindt, Roeland.,Xu, Jianchu.,...&Zomer, Robert J..(2016).Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal.PLOS ONE,11(9),e0163916.
MLA	Ranjitkar, Sailesh,et al."Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal".PLOS ONE 11.9(2016):e0163916.

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